Can the New Orleans Pelicans Make a Deep NBA Playoff Run This Season?
As I sit here watching the New Orleans Pelicans navigate this NBA season, I can't help but feel genuinely excited about their playoff potential. Having followed basketball for over two decades as both an analyst and passionate fan, I've developed a keen eye for teams that possess that special combination of talent, chemistry, and timing needed for postseason success. The Pelicans are checking all those boxes in ways that remind me of some surprise contenders from years past, though they still have significant hurdles to clear before we can consider them true championship threats.
When I look at their roster construction, what strikes me most is the remarkable balance between established stars and emerging talent. Zion Williamson's health has always been the million-dollar question, but this season he's shown a level of durability and maturity that we haven't seen before. Through the first half of the season, he's appeared in over 85% of their games while maintaining his explosive scoring efficiency around the basket. His partnership with Brandon Ingram has evolved beyond just co-existing to genuinely complementing each other's games. Ingram's mid-range mastery creates spacing that Zion exploits beautifully, while Zion's interior dominance opens up cleaner looks for Ingram from the perimeter. What many casual observers miss is how CJ McCollum's veteran presence has stabilized their offense in clutch situations – his 42% shooting from deep in fourth quarters has saved multiple games that would have slipped away in previous seasons.
The bench depth is where I believe the Pelicans separate themselves from other middle-tier playoff teams. Having watched numerous teams falter in the postseason due to inadequate rotations, I'm particularly impressed with how New Orleans has built their second unit. Players like Trey Murphy III and Herb Jones provide the kind of two-way versatility that coaches dream of having in playoff matchups. Murphy's shooting – he's hitting 38.7% from three on nearly seven attempts per game – forces defenses to stay honest even when the starters rest. Meanwhile, Jones might be the most underrated perimeter defender in the league, capable of switching across three positions without losing effectiveness. This depth reminds me of what made teams like the 2011 Mavericks or 2019 Raptors so dangerous – they could withstand off nights from stars because their benches could not only maintain leads but often extend them.
Now, I need to address the elephant in the room – the Western Conference gauntlet. Let's be honest here: making the playoffs in the West this season feels like running an obstacle course blindfolded. With Denver's championship experience, Phoenix's firepower, Golden State's resurgence, and young teams like Minnesota and Oklahoma City emerging, the path is brutal. The Pelicans will likely face a top-four seed in the first round unless they can secure home-court advantage, which currently seems challenging given the logjam of talented teams. Their 23-16 record against Western Conference opponents shows they can compete, but playoff basketball is a different beast entirely. I've seen many regular season darlings crumble when the intensity ratchets up in April and May.
What gives me confidence in this particular squad is their defensive identity. Unlike some offensively-gifted teams that struggle to get stops when their shots aren't falling, the Pelicans have shown they can win ugly. They're holding opponents to just 112.3 points per 100 possessions, which places them comfortably in the top ten defensively. Jose Alvarado's pest-like defense off the bench creates chaos that can swing momentum in playoff series, while Jonas Valančiūnas provides the rebounding stability that often proves crucial in postseason games where possessions become more valuable. Having analyzed playoff basketball for years, I've come to believe that defensive reliability matters more than offensive fireworks in extended series, and New Orleans has that foundation.
The comparison that keeps coming to mind for me is the 2021 Phoenix Suns, who rode a balanced roster and emerging stars to the Finals. Like those Suns, the Pelicans have the advantage of not carrying the burden of championship expectations, which can free players to perform without the weight of history pressing down on them. I've noticed that Zion in particular seems to thrive when the spotlight isn't directly on him – his efficiency actually improves in nationally televised games, which suggests he might relish the playoff stage rather than shrink from it.
Still, I have my concerns about their half-court execution when games slow down in the playoffs. Their offensive rating drops to 114.6 in possessions classified as half-court sets, which ranks them 18th in the league. Against elite playoff defenses that can force them out of transition opportunities, they'll need more creative solutions than they've shown thus far. Willie Green has done a magnificent job overall, but his playoff coaching inexperience does give me pause. I remember thinking similar things about Taylor Jenkins in Memphis before their playoff struggles, and coaching adjustments become exponentially more important in seven-game series.
When I consider all these factors together, my professional assessment is that the Pelicans are absolutely capable of winning a playoff series, possibly even two if matchups break right for them. A conference finals appearance isn't out of the question, though I'd consider that their ceiling rather than expectation. The development curve of their young players between now and April will be crucial – if Murphy can maintain his shooting efficiency and Jones continues to expand his offensive game, they become significantly more dangerous. Having watched countless playoff runs throughout my career, I've learned that postseason success often comes down to which team peaks at the right moment, and New Orleans has the pieces to hit their stride when it matters most. They may not be championship favorites, but they're precisely the kind of team that can ruin someone else's championship aspirations.
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